The 2017 Sales Year has concluded and we’ve digested the numbers, asked the questions, and forecasted the future.
Last year, we were pretty darn close in our predictions except for our fixation on interest rates. For the first time in the ten years that we’ve put out an Annual Report, we made the stupid call of predicting interest rate movement over the course of 2017. The year dawned with a giant Wall Street rally and talk of the Federal Reserve raising short-term rates, so naturally we joined the popular fray that predicted year-end rates would be higher, and our guess was just short of 5.0% at 4.9%
Wrong. 3.99 was the average rate for 2017, and it was 4.00 at year’s end (cruelly, rates have ascended aggressively to begin 2018!). That piece of data had us thinking that sales just wouldn’t be as high as they were in 2016. But because money was still cheaper than it should be, 2017 saw another record year in terms of single family sales.
So for your analytical pleasure, we present to you: The 2018 Annual Report and Forecast. This year, there’s no print version, just easier to digest info-graphics and thoughtful analysis on five dedicated subjects.
Here we look at the record average prices recorded in 2017, the median price that swelled 9% on average, and rate this in comparison to other markets along The Front Range. The 2017 Sales Year broke the trend from the previous several years where strong unit sales resulted in unexpectedly low appreciation. We also explore whether or not the average homeowner can expect to make $100,000+/- on their real estate investment over the next seven years. READ MORE ON PRICING HERE
We passed on the chance to do our 86 different Neighborhood Buying Patterns this year, but if you’re interested in what how your neighborhood compared to others, we are happy to create a custom report for you. In this article, we break down the trends by different MLS areas, areas usually composed of one or two different zip codes. READ MORE ON AREAS HERE
In our never-ending quest to out-nerd our competition, one barometer of market health that we track is the probability of sale, or, for every 100 units listed, how many sold? The 2017 sales year saw a staggering 88.4% of all listed properties, sell, and this was largely due to the fact that insufficient supply of properties existed for all 12 months in 2017. Correspondingly, this inventory problem is leading to an affordability problem for many buyers trying to get into the market. READ MORE ON INVENTORY PROBLEMS HERE
Our average selling price is usually $100,000 higher than the market-wide average, and 2017 was no different. We work the high-end market because we know the inventory, we know quality, we know long-term desirability, we appreciate restful calm… and we’re nerds. We can show where a good investment lies. There are some very interesting patterns coming out of the higher end market, and they’re guiding future values. READ MORE ON THE HIGH-END MARKET HERE
Finally, we put all of our metabolic functions on warp-drive to put together what we feel is the most comprehensive residential real estate forecast in the region. We dive into the recently signed tax plan, we consider buyer motivations, we stick our toes in the pool of interest rates again (we just don’t learn), and take a shot of humility as we put pen to paper and state what we think will happen next. READ MORE ON OUR FORECAST AND PREDICTIONS HERE
The Annual Report is our exercise of analytical love that we perform for our clients. It’s terribly important that our clients – past, present and future – operate from a kind and benevolent position when they are going through the eye of the needle that is the pleasure/pain spectrum of buying and selling real estate. No other investment is as fraught with as much meaning and emotion and we believe in amplifying, not quieting, the meaning and emotion involved in a real estate purchase. The only way to do this is to satiate the mind’s appetite for data. Unfiltered data, visually-presented data, analytically-distilled data, it’s all valuable and beneficial for our clientele. Putting you, the consumer, in the position of strength is our number one goal. If you would like to subscribe to the monthly companion piece, The Market Peak, simply ping us with an email and you’ll get our BombBomb-blast every four weeks or so.
Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2011 through December 31, 2017. RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.
Additional data for our Annual Report Series provided by Colorado Springs Home Builder’s Association, Pikes Peak Regional Building Dept., The Gazette, The Denver Post, www.FHFA.gov, www.HUD.gov, www.Zillow.com, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Colorado Springs Business Journal, Mortgage Bankers Association, www.Census.gov, www.SpringsGov.com, www.ElPasoCo.com, www.cospringstrails.com, www.bea.gov, www.city-data.com, Fort Collins Board of Realtors, www.corelogic.com, www.TheDeptofNumbers.com, www.TheBalance.com, www.CNN.com, www.BLS.gov., and The Colorado Springs Business Alliance.